UNDERSTANDING VOTER BEHAVIOR AND ELECTION DYNAMICS: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2021 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN KOSOVO

Abstract

A fundamental aspect of “democratic governance is holding free and fair elections” (Felsenthal and Nurmi 2018, 5). Elections without these characteristics may or may not have occurred. However, their relationship to the “government of the people, by the people, and for the people”, as Abraham Lincoln phrased, is questionable (Mieder 2005, 15). Studies indicate that national elections are considered first-order elections, while local institutions are equally crucial for improving a nation‟s quality of life and overall state. This is due to the greater attention given to national elections, which often determine the parliamentary composition and the country‟s leadership. Despite their significance, elections at lower geographical levels are considered second-order elections and have received comparatively less scholarly attention than higher-level elections (Reif and Schmitt 1980). More specifically, elections that result in the formation of national governments are the most significant for the vast majority of voters and political parties (Schakel and Jeffery 2013); in contrast, local elections are regarded as second-order because voter preferences are more strongly influenced by the outcomes of national elections than by local election-related factors. In other words, the assertion is made that voter behavior in local elections, akin to that observed in other second-order domains, is influenced by factors stemming from first-order domains. Conversely, under other circumstances, voters will be more likely to cast a different vote, as they